On Friday, October 14, 2005, the American Statistical Association sponsored a debate on the meaning of the 2004 exit polls with Warren Mitofsky, Director of the National Election Pool, and myself.

From our perspective, the debate went well. Here is the paper I delivered, "Polling Bias or Corrupted Count? Accepted Improbabilities and Neglected Correlations in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Exit Poll Data." See also the accompanying slide presentation which has virtually no overlap of information with the talk I gave because I had so much to say and so much information to convey in a short time.

Here are my accompanying notes of what transpired at the presentation.

Although the debate was filmed, Warren Mitofsky and the National Election Pool refused to permit publication of the video. Also it was the last such debate ever held. Mr. Mitofsky died suddenly and unexpectedly from an anuerism shortly afterwards. A similar event was set up by the Swarthmore Political Science (at the time,Swarthmore faculty chair, Rick Vallely, was also national chair of the American Political Science Association) but all the prominent election experts invited withdrew, the last of which ___ ____ of Princeon's Universiy withdrew a month before the event because he explained "something came up."

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